Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cc…82e7 other 35 markets active 7h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1
politics 20% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 3 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 3 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
all 3 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 0% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -16.1%
15% -24.2% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.6% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)3 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 97¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 31¢ $1 15h
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 28h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Will Viking win Norway Eliteserien? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 30h
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 30h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $1 32h
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 32h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $1 32h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $1 32h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 33h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 33h
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $1 33h
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $1 33h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1 33h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $1 33h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 33h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 33h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 52¢ $1 33h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $1 33h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 33h
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 33h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 33h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 34h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.75 · official $30.75 (match) · 38 history records