Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9c7…da49 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,125 (-18%) realized −$4,076 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +310% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +209% what you keep after slip
Net edge+209%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,856per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$7,949
other 38% +$2,089
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+270.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +309.5% +270.5% 57% 57% -57.8%
≤30d 7 +309.5% +270.5% 57% 57% -57.8%
≤90d 7 +309.5% +270.5% 57% 57% -57.8%
all 7 +309.5% +270.5% 57% 57% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +270.5% 57% -57.8%
10% ← realistic here +235.0% 43% -61.8%
15% +202.7% 43% -65.5%
20% +173.0% 43% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +309% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$793 vs −$2,995 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4,076
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,856
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $89 +$307 +344%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $814 −$729 -90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7,216 −$4,240 -59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,946 −$4,016 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,851 +$374 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,581 +$2,320 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $397 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $89 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $85 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $814 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4,300 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $4,297 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2,916 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $24 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $79 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2,826 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $863 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $812 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,639 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3,631 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,225 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,851 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $6,852 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $749 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,644 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,188 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 23 history records