Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9c7…e3fc crypto 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%77W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$227
30 days−$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$343
sports 12% +$182
weather 2% −$64
politics 2% +$15
other 1% −$86
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.5% +4.5% 67% 67% -12.2%
≤30d 61 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 41% -24.6%
≤90d 133 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 51% -11.2%
all 133 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 51% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 51% -11.2%
10% -17.0% 44% -19.7%
15% -25.0% 35% -27.4%
20% -32.4% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$67 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses77 / 56
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage62d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$73 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $92 +$35 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $158 −$132 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$37 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$13 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$86 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$76 +83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $484 −$161 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $73 −$22 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $67 −$56 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 03 $43 +$22 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $28 +$15 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump on $250 bill this year? May 31 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $84 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 23 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 −$29 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $31 $0 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $125 −$91 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $76 +$50 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $237 −$231 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $285 −$285 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $153 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $261 +$121 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $44 −$32 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $35 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $174 −$124 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 19 $82 +$68 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $74 +$9 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $79 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 19 $47 +$32 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $127 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $127 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $92 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $158 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $181 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $152 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $116 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $116 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $94 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $95 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $81 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $167 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $167 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $167 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $91 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $91 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $232 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $232 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $252 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $124 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $67 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records