Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9c6…4142 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-8%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 56% -16.5%
≤30d 27 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 56% -16.5%
≤90d 27 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 56% -16.5%
all 27 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 56% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 56% -16.5%
10% -24.3% 41% -24.5%
15% -31.6% 19% -31.8%
20% -38.3% 4% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records