Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B9 0xb9c5…73cb sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$2,538 (+70%) realized +$2,757 · open −$219

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$456per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$54est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+97.0%
≤90d	4	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+97.0%
all	4	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+97.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.0%	50%	+97.0%
10%	+12.1%	50%	+78.1%
15%	+1.3%	50%	+60.9%
20%	-8.6%	50%	+45.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +118% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,523 vs −$152 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.05 per $1 lost it wins $10.05

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$1,060

Realized+$2,757

Unrealized−$219

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$54

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage13d

Avg bet$456

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$599	$420	−$180 (-30%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	27¢	26¢	$309	$303	−$6 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Paraguay	14¢	14¢	$187	$194	+$7 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$183	$143	−$40 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$1,544	+$1,986	+129%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$483	+$1,060	+220%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 16	$309	−$302	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	14¢	$192	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	27¢	$316	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$188	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$308	8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$5	8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$1,538	8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	28¢	$2	13d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	31¢	$481	13d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY G2	24¢	$309	13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$307	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.26 · official $1,060.26 (match) · 26 history records