Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9c3…dbc7 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$818 (-1%) realized −$658 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 54L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,819
7 days−$634
14 days−$1,969
30 days−$1,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$425
other 20% −$1,742
world 0% −$200
tech 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +7.4% -2.9% 39% 34% -12.2%
≤30d 89 +1.2% -8.4% 39% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 89 +1.2% -8.4% 39% 36% -11.5%
all 89 +1.2% -8.4% 39% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 36% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 35% -20.0%
15% -25.2% 31% -27.7%
20% -32.5% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$709) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$622 vs −$429 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,183
Realized−$658
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage29d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $510 $417 −$93 (-18%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $434 $393 −$41 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-8%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 24¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$95 -93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $305 +$464 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $513 −$7 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,921 −$1,900 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $514 +$3 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $513 −$53 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $560 −$557 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $782 +$27 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $399 −$395 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$33 -16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $812 +$706 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $407 +$501 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $503 −$461 -92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$149 -73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$151 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$509 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 +$251 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $506 +$304 +60%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$25 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $154 −$16 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$778 +380%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $507 +$393 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $153 −$97 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $509 +$816 +160%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 −$87 -85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $707 −$600 -85%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $407 +$483 +119%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $308 −$165 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $709 −$639 -90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 +$123 +121%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$26 -13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 −$38 -37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$544 +107%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$332 +324%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $503 +$145 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $440 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $270 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $305 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $505 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $448 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $910 31h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $517 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $461 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $560 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $561 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $97 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $49 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 15¢ $172 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $103 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.00 · official $1,208.47 · 351 history records