Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9c3…994c crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+16%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% -7.2%
≤30d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% -7.2%
≤90d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% -7.2%
all 15 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 40% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 40% -16.1%
15% -34.9% 40% -24.2%
20% -41.3% 33% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 24¢ 31¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$12 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$45 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.29 (match) · 85 history records