Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
B9 0xb9c1…0791 politics 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 276d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$8,579 (+17%) realized +$7,860 · open +$719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%323W / 141L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,573
7 days+$1,410
14 days+$1,256
30 days+$3,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$4,270
politics 25% +$2,924
sports 6% +$268
finance 5% +$689
world 2% +$390
crypto 1% −$163
culture 1% +$13
tech 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.7% -8.9% 63% 59% +31.6%
≤30d 72 +27.2% +15.1% 61% 51% +19.7%
≤90d 140 +31.9% +19.3% 66% 54% +12.4%
all 464 +23.8% +12.0% 70% 55% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 55% +6.0%
10% +1.3% 46% -4.2%
15% -8.5% 33% -13.4%
20% -17.5% 26% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$31 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$4,123
Realized+$7,860
Unrealized+$719
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses323 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions18
Markets (closed)464 / 482
History coverage276d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $758 $840 +$82 (+11%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $576 $654 +$78 (+14%)
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? No 98¢ 99¢ $625 $636 +$11 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $306 $602 +$296 (+97%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $370 $520 +$150 (+41%)
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $183 $184 +$1 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 15¢ 79¢ $34 $177 +$143 (+427%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $125 $96 −$29 (-23%)
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Serie A next? Yes 7¢ 41¢ $13 $76 +$63 (+480%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 13¢ $56 $52 −$4 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $28 $42 +$15 (+53%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $65 $31 −$34 (-52%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $55 $25 −$30 (-55%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? No 15¢ 6¢ $48 $21 −$27 (-56%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? No 21¢ 50¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+140%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $120 +$84 +70%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $97 +$29 +30%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $239 +$80 +33%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $355 +$568 +160%
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $300 +$55 +18%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $118 +$204 +173%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $127 +$214 +168%
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $137 +$32 +23%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Frank Lampard be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $76 +$54 +71%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $1,092 +$254 +23%
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $115 +$10 +9%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -93%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 13 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Dominic Calvert-Lewin be included in England's official 2026 Worl Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Adam Wharton be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 04 $6 +$9 +161%
Will Declan Rice record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions L May 31 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Cha May 31 $39 +$13 +34%
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champi May 31 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Mikel Merino record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions May 31 $110 +$5 +5%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,738 −$88 -3%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? May 30 $215 +$11 +5%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? May 28 $82 +$423 +514%
Will Borna Sosa record the most red cards in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa C May 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $10 +$5 +43%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 27 $218 −$134 -62%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $68 +$32 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $142 11m
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 11m
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 11m
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 20m
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 25m
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $350 26m
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $355 26m
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $267 26m
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $55 27m
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 34m
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 35m
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 35m
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 36m
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $431 40m
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $16 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 91¢ $192 1h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $42 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 68¢ $42 5h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 8h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 8h
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 78¢ $49 28h
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 74¢ $48 28h
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $114 30h
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $200 31h
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $35 31h
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 95¢ $277 31h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $57 32h
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 62¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,122.53 · official $4,122.60 (match) · 2076 history records