Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb9c1…c1b8 other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,590 (-21%) realized −$7,595 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%68W / 100L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$196
14 days+$196
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$685
politics 29% −$8,600
sports 26% +$132
crypto 10% +$274
world 2% −$252
tech 1% +$164
culture 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +43.7% +30.0% 35% 35% +7.2%
≤30d 29 +35.6% +22.7% 34% 34% -2.9%
≤90d 50 -17.3% -25.2% 22% 20% -42.6%
all 168 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 36% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -28.9%
10% -17.9% 30% -35.7%
15% -25.9% 29% -41.9%
20% -33.1% 25% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$137 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$7,595
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)168 / 173
History coverage602d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $62 +$13 (+25%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$7 -29%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$106 +343%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $120 −$6 -5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $71 −$39 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -12%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $77 +$64 +83%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$101 +963%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $203 +$113 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$14 +92%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $101 −$19 -19%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $100 +$16 +16%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UEFA Women's Euro: Germany vs. Spain (To Advance) May 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Azerbaijan come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-08-20? May 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $300 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 41h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 37¢ $26 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 42h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $26 42h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $33 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $70 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $66 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 16¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 16¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 93¢ $141 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $77 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $316 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.18 · official $239.75 (match) · 545 history records