Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B9 0xb9c1…2348 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$382 (+9%) realized +$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 177d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$664
weather 30% −$299
sports 23% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 25% +13.8%
≤30d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 25% +13.8%
≤90d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 25% +13.8%
all 6 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 17% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 17% -0.5%
10% -24.6% 17% -10.0%
15% -31.9% 17% -18.7%
20% -38.5% 17% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$101 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage177d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $617 −$4 -1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,001 +$37 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $1,313 +$668 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1? Jan 24 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 2? Jan 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 3¢ $579 56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 4¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 5¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $205 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 70¢ $303 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 69¢ $404 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $405 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $202 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 2? BUY No 43¢ $300 177d
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records