Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb9be…663e crypto 47 markets active 12h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$88 (+7%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$66
sports 4% +$98
other 2% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +41.4% +27.9% 49% 40% -4.0%
≤30d 47 +41.4% +27.9% 49% 40% -4.0%
≤90d 47 +41.4% +27.9% 49% 40% -4.0%
all 47 +41.4% +27.9% 49% 40% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.9% 40% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +15.7% 30% -13.2%
15% +4.5% 17% -21.6%
20% -5.7% 15% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$36 +139%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$32 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $111 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $133 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$44 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$38 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$87 +1683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$8 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $61 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records