Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9bd…fee2 crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,254 (-15%) realized −$1,255 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%142W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$176
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,199
sports 4% −$30
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +52.6% +38.1% 62% 62% +23.5%
≤30d 22 +28.6% +16.3% 55% 55% +8.3%
≤90d 125 -17.6% -25.4% 42% 42% -33.2%
all 311 -12.9% -21.2% 46% 45% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 45% -23.2%
10% -28.8% 45% -30.6%
15% -35.6% 45% -37.3%
20% -41.9% 45% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$1,255
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses142 / 169
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)311 / 313
History coverage122d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $76 −$26 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$40 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $56 +$71 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$18 +89%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$18 +88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $45 −$22 -49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 +$60 +388%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$13 +93%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $17 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $17 −$16 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $23 +$18 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 15 $10 +$9 +90%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $17 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 21 $15 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 38¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $127 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $56 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 20¢ $23 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $45 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $15 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $14 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $27 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $14 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.83 · official $100.83 (match) · 560 history records