Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb9bd…c831 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$84 (+13%) realized +$83 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 29% +$4
sports 23% +$4
weather 6% +$76
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 44% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 9% -9.1%
all 21 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 10% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 10% +3.1%
10% -9.9% 5% -6.8%
15% -18.6% 5% -15.8%
20% -26.6% 5% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.73 per $1 lost it wins $26.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage480d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $120 −$1 -1%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 05 $29 $0 +0%
Villanova vs. Georgetown Mar 04 $117 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26? Mar 04 $38 +$76 +203%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-25? Feb 26 $37 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $27 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $2 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $7 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $21 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.57 · official $26.57 (match) · 69 history records