Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9ba…35fe world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$2
other 14% +$1
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 5% -9.3%
all 33 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage475d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $42 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $27 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $32 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $12 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.18 · official $44.18 (match) · 99 history records