Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B9
0xb9b8…7512
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage263d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $26 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 25 $11 −$2 -14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Septe Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$1
world 19% $0
politics 19% −$3
crypto 13% $0
sports 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $23 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 47h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $25 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $25 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 8d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 79d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $3 174d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 178d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 0% -10.3%
all 42 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.10 · official $26.10 (match) · 159 history records