Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9b6…e6eb crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate74%42W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$6
sports 7% −$6
other 6% +$3
politics 4% −$1
tech 3% +$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 37% -7.4%
≤30d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 37% -7.4%
≤90d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 37% -7.4%
all 57 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 37% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 37% -7.4%
10% -22.7% 23% -16.3%
15% -30.1% 11% -24.4%
20% -37.0% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses42 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 53¢ 49¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.85 · official $3.85 (match) · 160 history records