Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9b5…74af crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%49W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$75
14 days−$63
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -15.1% -23.2% 57% 43% -14.3%
≤30d 93 -19.6% -27.2% 53% 42% -17.3%
≤90d 93 -19.6% -27.2% 53% 42% -17.3%
all 93 -19.6% -27.2% 53% 42% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 42% -17.3%
10% -34.2% 27% -25.3%
15% -40.6% 19% -32.5%
20% -46.4% 14% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses49 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage29d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $77 −$21 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $127 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$35 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$9 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 261 history records