Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9b4…c028 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$353 (-36%) realized −$352 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$249
14 days−$249
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$363
other 3% +$9
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.1% -44.9% 20% 20% -52.3%
≤30d 10 -39.1% -44.9% 20% 20% -52.3%
≤90d 12 -49.3% -54.1% 17% 17% -52.6%
all 54 -29.8% -36.5% 41% 37% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 37% -44.2%
10% -42.6% 28% -49.5%
15% -48.1% 22% -54.4%
20% -53.2% 15% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage210d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 48¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $44 −$3 -6%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $46 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $87 +$22 +26%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$23 -22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $26 +$9 +36%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns Feb 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 03 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +42%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $45 −$45 -100%
UFC 323: Trocoli vs. Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Dec 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Pacers vs. Bulls Dec 06 $16 +$28 +178%
Lakers vs. Celtics Dec 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Kings vs. Rockets Dec 04 $18 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Dec 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Senators vs. Canadiens Dec 03 $1 +$1 +82%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 03 $16 +$4 +22%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Dec 02 $1 +$1 +100%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Dec 02 $1 +$1 +113%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bulls vs. Magic Dec 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Clippers vs. Heat Dec 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $16 +$2 +10%
Pelicans vs. Warriors Dec 01 $16 +$5 +32%
Suns vs. Thunder Nov 29 $16 +$2 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $16 +$5 +30%
Rockets vs. Warriors Nov 27 $16 +$22 +133%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $8 +$4 +45%
Bulls vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Nov 23 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 23 $8 +$1 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 23 $8 +$3 +39%
Pistons vs. Bucks Nov 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 22 $8 +$5 +67%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 32¢ $33 1h
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) SELL INOX Division 30¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $35 1h
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 31¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 30¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 65¢ $46 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $12 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $23 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $53 38h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $23 39h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $33 39h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $109 39h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $87 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner SELL Solary 65¢ $4 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Galions 62¢ $9 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $1 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner SELL Galions 60¢ $3 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $3 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Galions 62¢ $3 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $7 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.10 · official $33.78 (match) · 119 history records