Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9b0…aea0 crypto 281 markets active 3d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%257W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$141
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$59
other 21% −$74
finance 11% +$11
world 7% −$376
weather 6% −$82
politics 5% −$140
sports 4% +$497
culture 4% +$2
tech 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.7% -10.1% 88% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 269 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 279 -0.4% -9.8% 92% 2% -9.9%
all 279 -0.4% -9.8% 92% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$40 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses257 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)279 / 281
History coverage83d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 −$25 -51%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ goals Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $355? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 −$7 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 49¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 87¢ $44 5d
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $355? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.84 · official $99.84 (match) · 605 history records