Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb9b0…a48d other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 34% −$9
sports 6% +$2
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 110 -5.4% -14.4% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -22.6% 6% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage116d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $123 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $354 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $162 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $470 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $368 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $357 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $491 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $387 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $204 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $147 27d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $163 27d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $163 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $157 32d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $157 33d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $158 33d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $158 35d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 35d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 45d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 46d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $132 46d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $132 46d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $125 47d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $125 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 48d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 48d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 49d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $123 49d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $123 49d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $138 49d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $96 49d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $42 49d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $150 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 312 history records