Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9af…9856 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$13
other 23% $0
politics 19% −$22
sports 16% +$13
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 18 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 56 -0.8% -10.3% 46% 0% -9.8%
all 58 -0.8% -10.3% 47% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage485d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$10 -26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $17 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $87 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $186 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $3 $0 -5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $4 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $46 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 30 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $26 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $39 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $33 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $6 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.40 · official $38.97 (match) · 287 history records