Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb9af…1794 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,033 (+30%) realized +$2,127 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$644
7 days−$7
14 days+$1,560
30 days+$1,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,775
other 35% −$315
crypto 1% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +19.8% +8.4% 37% 37% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +22.4% +10.8% 41% 41% +19.7%
≤90d 42 +22.1% +10.5% 43% 43% +18.3%
all 42 +22.1% +10.5% 43% 43% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 43% +18.3%
10% -0.1% 40% +6.9%
15% -9.7% 36% -3.4%
20% -18.6% 31% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$92 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$2,127
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage47d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 4¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$179 +874%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$374 +365%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$102 +67%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$108 +106%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$158 +155%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $460 −$250 -54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 −$2 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $279 +$215 +77%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$71 +35%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$121 +118%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 −$134 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$90 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$142 +277%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$81 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $143 +$66 +46%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $293 +$1,415 +484%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $210 −$5 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $299 +$89 +30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $535 +$367 +69%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $182 −$128 -70%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $910 +$44 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $82 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 19h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 23h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $211 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $261 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $82 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $272 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.81 · official $195.85 (match) · 104 history records