Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9ad…4400 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$4
weather 21% −$13
crypto 16% −$2
tech 9% −$4
world 9% −$6
politics 8% −$4
finance 4% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 82 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 1% -13.6%
≤90d 107 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 1% -12.8%
all 114 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 3% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -13.5%
10% -22.1% 0% -21.8%
15% -29.6% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage94d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 79¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? No 89¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? No 92¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? No $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? No 90¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -47%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Joel Dahmen finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.35 (High) in 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? May 25 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL No 53¢ $3 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 1h
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 40h
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Joel Dahmen finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2 SELL No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Joel Dahmen finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2 BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.16 · official $5.16 (match) · 286 history records