Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb9ac…e1f7 other 18 markets active 4d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,381 (-24%) realized −$1,370 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$63
politics 22% −$1,257
sports 3% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.1% -60.3% 29% 29% -73.3%
≤30d 7 -56.1% -60.3% 29% 29% -73.3%
≤90d 13 -50.9% -55.6% 38% 23% -12.1%
all 14 -54.4% -58.8% 36% 21% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 21% -32.5%
10% -62.7% 21% -39.0%
15% -66.3% 14% -44.9%
20% -69.6% 7% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$156 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage101d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $15 +$4 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 21 $3,869 +$12 +0%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 03 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.07 · official $249.08 (match) · 33 history records