Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9a9…324a other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$4
other 37% $0
world 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 26 +2.5% -7.3% 88% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage617d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $131 $132 +$1 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Mar 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Mar 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 02 $120 $0 +0%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Jan 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Jan 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Jan 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 30 $66 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 18 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 10 $2,435 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $900 −$2 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 10 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 99¢ $30 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $27 28d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 62d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 62d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 62d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 94d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 103d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 103d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $13 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 103d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 137d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 137d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $11 137d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 151d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 151d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $83 201d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $61 201d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $12 201d
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers BUY Buccaneers 64¢ $1 201d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $66 264d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $17 341d
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $26 485d
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $26 556d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 578d
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? SELL No 100¢ $2,433 617d
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? BUY No 100¢ $2,435 617d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.74 · official $160.74 (match) · 235 history records