Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9a8…3592 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,046 (-10%) realized −$7,016 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,067per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$22,231
14 days−$22,231
30 days−$22,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$19,454
crypto 19% +$6,905
politics 11% +$4,698
economics 6% +$1,541
sports 5% −$967
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -27.5% -34.4% 30% 26% -59.6%
≤30d 27 -27.5% -34.4% 30% 26% -59.6%
≤90d 28 -20.0% -27.6% 32% 29% -51.8%
all 65 +18.4% +7.1% 37% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 35% -18.7%
10% -3.2% 32% -26.5%
15% -12.5% 32% -33.6%
20% -21.1% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$811) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +61% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,219 vs −$891 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$1,270
Realized−$7,016
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage388d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1,000 $977 −$23 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 65¢ 64¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $203 +$214 +105%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $204 −$66 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $811 −$318 -39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $179 +$306 +170%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 23 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 23 $15,999 −$15,999 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 23 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $103 +$564 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,305 +$1,468 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $154 +$2 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $811 −$811 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,045 −$307 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,009 +$321 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,518 +$941 +62%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,505 +$2,732 +182%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $2,500 −$1,883 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 10AM ET Dec 29 $101 +$192 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 11AM ET Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 12PM ET Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 1AM ET Dec 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 12PM ET Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 11PM ET Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1PM ET Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 12PM ET Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10AM ET Dec 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 10AM ET Dec 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 12PM ET Dec 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 10PM ET Dec 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 12AM ET Dec 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 11PM ET Dec 29 $550 −$550 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 17 $1,000 +$991 +99%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 12 $5,000 +$2,987 +60%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 12 $5,000 +$3,298 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 7AM ET Sep 10 $120 +$155 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11AM ET Sep 08 $200 +$226 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 8AM ET Sep 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 57¢ $197 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $508 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $303 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 29¢ $51 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 48¢ $203 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 39¢ $132 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $477 31h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 44h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $179 44h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $204 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $811 44h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $507 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $4,773 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 16¢ $156 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 55¢ $275 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,030 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $811 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $4,738 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,330 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,270.22 · official $1,464.39 · 165 history records