Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb9a8…7df4 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$228 (+4%) realized +$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%86W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$203
14 days+$48
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$301
world 15% −$18
politics 13% −$121
other 1% +$44
tech 1% −$21
finance 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$11
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +15.0% +4.0% 50% 46% +23.3%
≤30d 100 +6.6% -3.5% 52% 46% -4.2%
≤90d 178 +3.6% -6.3% 48% 43% -6.1%
all 178 +3.6% -6.3% 48% 43% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 43% -6.1%
10% -15.3% 34% -15.1%
15% -23.5% 29% -23.3%
20% -31.0% 24% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses86 / 92
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 182
History coverage51d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $14 +$46 +330%
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$7 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$41 +149%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -44%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $39 −$10 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $143 +$97 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $24 +$15 +62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 +$11 +194%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $42 +$5 +13%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $28 −$8 -28%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $26 +$19 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $23 −$8 -35%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +300%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $11 +$9 +75%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3 +$7 +219%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 06 $170 +$17 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $40 −$22 -56%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $61 −$37 -61%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $73 −$45 -62%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 05 $71 −$43 -61%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 −$1 -4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 05 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Trump say "Memorandum" this week? Jun 04 $4 +$11 +281%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $3 +$3 +102%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 23¢ $9 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 28¢ $2 18h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 29¢ $4 18h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 39¢ $4 18h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 26¢ $12 18h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 25¢ $20 18h
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? SELL No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? BUY No 10¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? BUY No 10¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? BUY No 10¢ $0 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. BUY 7¢ $2 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $25 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $0 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $13 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $23 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $45 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? BUY No 0¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $9 27h
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? BUY No 5¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? BUY No 5¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $6 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $3 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 557 history records