Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb9a2…b3cd sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,989 (-8%) realized −$1,985 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%85W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$333
14 days−$2,602
30 days−$2,864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,734
other 5% −$448
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -24.7% -31.9% 41% 41% -18.3%
≤30d 84 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 42% -25.7%
≤90d 170 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -19.3%
all 188 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 45% -17.2%
10% -23.1% 45% -25.1%
15% -30.6% 45% -32.4%
20% -37.4% 43% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$118 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized−$1,985
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses85 / 103
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage129d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $584 $580 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $132 −$9 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $203 +$168 +83%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 +$142 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $202 +$120 +60%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 +$148 +73%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $203 +$142 +70%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $202 +$120 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $541 +$384 +71%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $275 +$119 +44%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $152 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs BOMBA Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $77 −$75 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $304 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $304 +$219 +72%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $247 −$243 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $304 +$251 +83%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $51 +$157 +307%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $304 +$196 +65%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $229 −$225 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $77 −$75 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $153 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 05 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $303 +$180 +60%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +65%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 04 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $77 −$75 -98%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $304 +$241 +79%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $304 −$300 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 03 $77 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $304 −$26 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $304 −$16 -5%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 02 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $305 −$300 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $304 −$300 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $588 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 49¢ $123 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $132 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $203 30h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Geekay Esports 27¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $202 2d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du BUY Vancouver Surge 21¢ $102 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $203 3d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $202 3d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Galions 57¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $202 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 35¢ $204 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner BUY Boston Breach 31¢ $204 5d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 58¢ $203 5d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 58¢ $203 5d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 58¢ $541 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 62¢ $202 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 84¢ $394 7d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 47¢ $152 7d
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs BOMBA Team (+1.5) BUY Frites Esports Club 27¢ $77 8d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $304 8d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 58¢ $275 8d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed BUY HEROIC Academy 57¢ $304 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Global Esports 44¢ $247 10d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOUD 65¢ $303 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 56¢ $304 11d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $153 11d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 54¢ $304 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.85 · official $579.85 (match) · 314 history records