Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9a2…1718 crypto 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-6%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate80%177W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$78
other 2% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 40% +4.0%
≤30d 10 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 40% +4.0%
≤90d 91 -11.1% -19.5% 74% 32% -20.2%
all 222 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 38% -13.5%
10% -17.3% 19% -21.8%
15% -25.3% 10% -29.4%
20% -32.7% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses177 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage125d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 29 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 29 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 29 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 29 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 28 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 28 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 28 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 28 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 28 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 28 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.52 (match) · 756 history records