Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb99d…c017 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$15
politics 23% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 39 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 0% -6.8%
10% -15.7% 0% -15.7%
15% -23.9% 0% -23.9%
20% -31.3% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 5h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 95¢ $5 9d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 96¢ $19 9d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 93¢ $20 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $19 9d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY No 98¢ $5 9d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 96¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 9d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? BUY Down 98¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.78 · official $125.78 (match) · 86 history records