Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb997…242b other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$47
sports 25% −$31
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage142d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $410 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $246 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $338 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $411 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $742 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $252 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $349 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 13h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 17h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 21h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 22h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 26h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 30h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 38h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 39h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 40h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 46h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.10 · official $47.10 (match) · 1502 history records