Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb995…b425 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$224 (+5%) realized +$226 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$108
14 days+$252
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$132
sports 28% +$324
crypto 8% +$74
world 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +17.3% +6.1% 46% 46% +2.1%
≤30d 67 -12.5% -20.9% 39% 39% -1.9%
≤90d 67 -12.5% -20.9% 39% 39% -1.9%
all 68 -13.8% -22.0% 38% 38% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 38% -2.3%
10% -29.5% 38% -11.6%
15% -36.3% 38% -20.2%
20% -42.5% 32% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$29 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 94
History coverage240d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Morocco 82¢ 81¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $49 +$75 +151%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$36 -35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 +$84 +83%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$31 +124%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $301 −$178 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 64¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Morocco 82¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Morocco 82¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 8¢ $10 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 6¢ $5 19h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND South Afri BUY 8¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 23¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06 BUY 9¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 6¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 9¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 39¢ $49 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 16¢ $25 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 17¢ $50 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 49¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $63 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY 22¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.39 · official $221.63 (match) · 143 history records