Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb994…5bb9 crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$43
sports 20% −$3
other 16% +$5
crypto 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -11.4%
≤30d 128 -44.4% -49.7% 5% 4% -17.1%
≤90d 168 -54.7% -59.0% 4% 4% -18.6%
all 168 -54.7% -59.0% 4% 4% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 4% -18.6%
10% -62.9% 3% -26.4%
15% -66.5% 3% -33.5%
20% -69.8% 3% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×14.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 161
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage50d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 5+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $380 $387 +$7 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 81¢ $168 $162 −$6 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 69¢ 46¢ $34 $23 −$11 (-33%)
Will there be 3+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be 4+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 23 $50 −$14 -28%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $166 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +92%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +9900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 5+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 95¢ $280 1h
Will there be 5+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $168 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $516 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 88¢ $176 5h
Will there be 3+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 5h
Will there be 4+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $76 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $12 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $76 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $12 5h
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 69¢ $34 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $9 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.29 · official $714.95 (match) · 304 history records