Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb991…a963 sports 88 markets active 1d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$195 (-1%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$132
14 days−$125
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$3
other 16% −$10
sports 9% −$62
economics 3% +$6
world 2% −$109
crypto 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.1% -39.5% 20% 20% -29.9%
≤30d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 18% -19.4%
≤90d 52 +1.9% -7.8% 35% 21% -10.0%
all 87 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 25% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 25% -10.7%
10% -24.8% 25% -19.3%
15% -32.1% 23% -27.1%
20% -38.7% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage216d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $103 +$24 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 −$59 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$96 -92%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$2 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $120 +$8 +7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$22 +33%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $65 −$9 -14%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $275 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 26 $11 +$6 +57%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 13 $33 +$15 +46%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 13 $24 +$26 +105%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,170 +$4 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $19 +$27 +146%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $430 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 31 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $400 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $150 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $545 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $200 −$1 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $148 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $180 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $198 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 23 $276 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $180 +$16 +9%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 21 $9 +$4 +49%
Islanders vs. Senators Mar 21 $11 +$9 +82%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $2 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $4 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $8 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $25 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $104 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $38 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $43 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $90 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $18 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $15 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $19 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $58 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 421 history records