Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb990…dbc2 politics 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%53W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$14
14 days−$16
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$23
other 34% −$11
crypto 8% −$10
sports 6% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 92 -0.6% -10.1% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 177 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 224 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses53 / 171
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)224 / 227
History coverage101d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$2 -4%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 -2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 46m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 56m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 5h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $7 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 7h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $6 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $5 8h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 8h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 12h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $33 14h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 26h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 26h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $50 29h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 29h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $52 29h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $54 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.97 · official $21.97 (match) · 1381 history records