Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B9 0xb98c…ee92 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$34 (-9%) realized −$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$87

7 days+$132

14 days+$124

30 days+$113

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+92.8%	+74.4%	62%	62%	+41.2%
≤30d	16	+62.8%	+47.3%	50%	50%	+29.1%
≤90d	18	+44.7%	+30.9%	44%	44%	+24.5%
all	18	+44.7%	+30.9%	44%	44%	+24.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.9%	44%	+24.5%
10%	+18.4%	44%	+12.5%
15%	+7.0%	44%	+1.7%
20%	-3.5%	44%	-8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -64% → late +153% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 30

History coverage55d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	44¢	42¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$35	+$45	+128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$51	+$42	+82%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$5	+$8	+166%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs.	Jun 25	$5	+$44	+874%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5	Jun 24	$17	+$21	+123%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$14	+$18	+128%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$10	+$7	+73%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$14	−$14	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$20	+$25	+128%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$11	−$11	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$12	$0	-1%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?	May 10	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	59m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$20	59m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY	26¢	$16	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$80	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$92	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$35	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Wil	BUY	5¢	$5	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi	BUY	13¢	$5	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. England: England O/U 1	BUY	8¢	$5	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread:	BUY	3¢	$5	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U	BUY	12¢	$5	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Wil	BUY	4¢	$3	2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL	79¢	$13	2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY	29¢	$5	3d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U	BUY	5¢	$4	3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs.	BUY	10¢	$5	4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5	BUY	31¢	$5	4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	46¢	$10	4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$38	4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$33	4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5	BUY Over	44¢	$17	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$17	5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$10	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$14	5d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$31	6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	BUY Over	31¢	$14	6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$45	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.67 · official $55.32 · 41 history records