Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb98a…914b sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$437 (-13%) realized −$466 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%42W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$107
14 days−$291
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$212
other 7% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 42% -1.6%
≤30d 78 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 78 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -15.1%
all 78 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -15.1%
10% -25.2% 35% -23.2%
15% -32.4% 31% -30.6%
20% -39.1% 27% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$37 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$466
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses42 / 36
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage18d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $65 $94 +$29 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $128 +$110 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $84 +$47 +55%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $199 +$112 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $46 −$21 -46%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +53%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 +$1 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$3 +18%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $3 −$1 -29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +96%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $26 −$17 -66%
Set Handicap: Klaassen (-1.5) vs Zamora (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kelm (-1.5) vs Filip (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$6 +29%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $1 +$2 +171%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $4 +$3 +84%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $2 −$1 -33%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $12 +$6 +50%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$6 +104%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $121 +$29 +24%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $237 32m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $131 38m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $128 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $52 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $35 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $199 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 52¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $16 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 55¢ $7 6h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 9h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 11h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.31 · official $94.31 (match) · 369 history records