Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb988…1297 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$380 (+17%) realized −$127 · open +$507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%39W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$42
14 days−$115
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$464
crypto 31% −$42
sports 3% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 33% -37.0%
≤30d 58 -14.3% -22.5% 67% 45% -25.8%
≤90d 58 -14.3% -22.5% 67% 45% -25.8%
all 58 -14.3% -22.5% 67% 45% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 45% -25.8%
10% -29.9% 19% -32.9%
15% -36.7% 7% -39.4%
20% -42.9% 2% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,820
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$507
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses39 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)58 / 64
History coverage17d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $995 $1,559 +$564 (+57%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $149 $124 −$25 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $30 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $70 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $51 −$20 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $102 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $154 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $44 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,024 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 10d
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,820.31 · official $1,821.46 (match) · 126 history records