Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb984…ca0f other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,476 (+32%) realized +$2,476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%57W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$2,479
politics 10% +$2
tech 8% +$1
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$11
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 60 +2.1% -7.6% 95% 5% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 5% +20.9%
10% -16.5% 3% +9.3%
15% -24.5% 3% -1.3%
20% -31.9% 3% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$6 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×207.98 per $1 lost it wins $207.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$2,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses57 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage204d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $230 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $159 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $275 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? May 25 $270 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 16 $270 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $270 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 11 $246 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in May 2026? May 04 $273 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Apr 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Apr 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $2.50? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $3.50? Apr 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $235 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Apr 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? Apr 14 $150 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April Apr 01 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 30 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 20 $39 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $59 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $82 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $73 −$11 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kazakhstan record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Japan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 13 $5 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic p Jan 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election Jan 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Jan 27 $1 $0 +8%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Jan 02 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 7d
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 23d
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 23d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $275 30d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $270 37d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? SELL No 100¢ $271 38d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 100¢ $270 39d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 44d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 100¢ $246 51d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 57d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 20 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 61d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $70 65d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY No 100¢ $70 65d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $3.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 68d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 68d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 71d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 BUY No 100¢ $22 75d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 77d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April SELL No 100¢ $177 83d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April BUY No 100¢ $176 86d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March BUY No 100¢ $200 89d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $200 92d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $70 96d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $39 99d
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.56 · official $272.56 (match) · 130 history records