Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb984…a855 crypto 1638 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,686 (+19%) realized +$7,686 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%1425W / 592L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day130.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,458
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1059 -42.0% -47.5% 54% 9% -28.2%
≤30d 2017 -18.0% -25.8% 71% 16% -14.8%
≤90d 2017 -18.0% -25.8% 71% 16% -14.8%
all 2017 -18.0% -25.8% 71% 16% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 16% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 7% -22.9%
15% -39.4% 5% -30.4%
20% -45.4% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$7,686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1425 / 592
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2017 / 1638
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day130.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 37¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -200%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$21 -201%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $24 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $24 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.30 (match) · 3500 history records