Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb981…f808 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-16%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$19
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 44% -29.3%
≤30d 9 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 44% -29.3%
≤90d 9 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 44% -29.3%
all 9 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 44% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -29.3%
10% -22.5% 44% -36.0%
15% -30.0% 44% -42.2%
20% -36.8% 11% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 32h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.61 · official $15.61 (match) · 21 history records