Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb980…516a sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,299 (-13%) realized −$1,203 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%71W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days−$1,487
14 days−$2,308
30 days−$2,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$747
other 11% −$579
world 1% −$81
politics 0% −$40
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -59.2% -63.1% 24% 22% -48.3%
≤30d 101 -18.7% -26.4% 40% 36% -33.2%
≤90d 136 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 46% -22.2%
all 136 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 46% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 46% -22.2%
10% -16.5% 44% -29.7%
15% -24.6% 41% -36.5%
20% -32.0% 31% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$65 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$1,203
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses71 / 65
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage77d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 60¢ 3¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $203 +$232 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $431 +$17 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $503 −$500 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $504 −$504 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$50 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$101 +197%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$118 +231%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $203 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $405 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 96¢ $431 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $503 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 22¢ $31 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $51 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $51 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $504 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 21¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $51 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $40 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $51 6d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.24 · official $104.24 (match) · 278 history records