Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
B9 0xb980…73b0 other 619 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,016 (+9%) realized +$3,968 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%194W / 169L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$8,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,850
7 days+$2,497
14 days+$2,482
30 days+$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$576
other 34% +$267
sports 18% +$1,826
crypto 8% +$182
tech 3% +$25
finance 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +32.5% +19.8% 54% 42% +3.3%
≤30d 323 +16.7% +5.6% 50% 38% +0.4%
≤90d 363 +34.7% +21.9% 53% 42% +1.5%
all 363 +34.7% +21.9% 53% 42% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 42% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here +10.2% 31% -8.2%
15% -0.4% 24% -17.1%
20% -10.2% 20% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$15 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$8,353
Realized+$3,968
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses194 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions256
Markets (closed)363 / 619
History coverage69d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 256 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,711 $1,721 +$9 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 20¢ 99¢ $175 $850 +$675 (+386%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $367 $368 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $349 $359 +$11 (+3%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $231 $236 +$5 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $218 $222 +$5 (+2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Under 52¢ 66¢ $130 $165 +$35 (+27%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $134 $136 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 22¢ 86¢ $34 $131 +$97 (+282%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $117 $121 +$4 (+4%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Over 44¢ 48¢ $110 $121 +$11 (+10%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $132 $120 −$11 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Tuyo FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 59¢ 69¢ $86 $101 +$15 (+17%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+3%)
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch No 86¢ 96¢ $84 $94 +$10 (+12%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+3%)
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 62¢ 76¢ $69 $85 +$16 (+24%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 79¢ 10¢ $672 $81 −$591 (-88%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? No 92¢ 70¢ $92 $71 −$21 (-23%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Germany 91¢ 98¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch? No 90¢ 86¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-5%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $61 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,432 +$56 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $217 $0 +0%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,320 +$160 +12%
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $37 +$5 +15%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $734 −$68 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $210 +$48 +23%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $107 +$59 +56%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $51 +$18 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $18 −$1 -7%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $181 +$48 +27%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $93 −$6 -6%
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 15, 12AM ET? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $288 +$5 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 +$163 +134%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $24 −$3 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $523 +$129 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $415 +$103 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $706 −$46 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $303 −$34 -11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1,519 +$145 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $114 +$281 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $251 +$216 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 +$315 +207%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $173 −$114 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 −$8 -55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$9 +165%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$7 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$8 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $6 +$9 +158%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $93 +$157 +169%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $137 +$113 +83%
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$8 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$9 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 14 $11 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $14 4m
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4m
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 25m
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $8 25m
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 25m
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $8 25m
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 59m
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $11 59m
City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 1h
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $37 1h
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $9 1h
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 39¢ $13 2h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $30 2h
Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 2h
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 28¢ $5 2h
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 28¢ $5 2h
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 2h
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 28¢ $5 2h
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 2h
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $43 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,353.46 · official $8,336.21 (match) · 2718 history records