Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb97e…262b sports 600 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$815 (+1%) realized +$830 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%297W / 302L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$17
14 days+$76
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,543
other 2% −$1,292
politics 2% −$1,256
world 0% +$7
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 33% -6.9%
≤30d 80 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 46% -5.5%
≤90d 500 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 39% -17.9%
all 599 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 45% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 45% -8.9%
10% -20.2% 37% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 29% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$51 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$830
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses297 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions1
Markets (closed)599 / 600
History coverage607d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $74 −$23 -31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $361 −$7 -2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -71%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$45 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $912 +$357 +39%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $397 +$159 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $409 −$343 -84%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $126 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $40 −$14 -35%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $232 +$59 +25%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $201 +$142 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $304 −$219 -72%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $248 +$380 +153%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $297 −$107 -36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $140 +$66 +47%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $246 −$10 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $429 −$421 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $26 +$24 +93%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $67 +$39 +59%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $101 +$117 +117%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $342 +$160 +47%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $22 +$30 +134%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $283 +$89 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $166 −$163 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $92 +$114 +124%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $75 +$25 +34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $24 +$12 +50%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $252 +$172 +68%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $93 −$39 -42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $478 +$111 +23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 +$51 +101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $86 −$82 -96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $126 +$64 +50%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $63 −$62 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $66 +$47 +71%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $149 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $95 +$36 +38%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $188 +$9 +5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $98 −$34 -34%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $46 −$17 -37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $74 +$93 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 7¢ $12 49m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 12¢ $21 53m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 12¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 18¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 19¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 19¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 24¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 92¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $349 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 93¢ $361 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner SELL Lindorfitos 9¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 11¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 11¢ $14 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $37 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $25 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open SELL Team Bald 84¢ $148 4d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open BUY Team Bald 65¢ $51 4d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open BUY Team Bald 50¢ $51 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 25¢ $57 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $25 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $76 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $765 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $497 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $6 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 61¢ $503 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $104 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $152 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $152 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.75 (match) · 2974 history records