Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb97c…d089 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,267 (-14%) realized −$7,270 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,685per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$189
14 days−$189
30 days−$6,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$7,501
other 1% −$32
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -39.8% -45.6% 33% 33% -61.2%
≤30d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 57% 36% -26.0%
≤90d 29 -21.1% -28.6% 52% 31% -23.2%
all 29 -21.1% -28.6% 52% 31% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 31% -23.2%
10% -35.5% 21% -30.5%
15% -41.7% 10% -37.3%
20% -47.4% 7% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,980) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$325 vs −$884 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$7,270
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,685
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $320 $323 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $197 −$196 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$23 -69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$42 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $8,523 −$5,782 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic May 25 $6,752 +$1,165 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys May 25 $5,670 +$1,323 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Rebecca Sramkova May 25 $4,016 +$607 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa May 25 $190 +$16 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $4,188 +$321 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur May 24 $1,980 +$197 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1,229 −$591 -48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $1,258 −$222 -18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $958 −$97 -10%
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaume Munar May 14 $1,204 −$289 -24%
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska May 14 $1,104 +$120 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $1,008 +$101 +10%
Zagreb: Stefan Dostanic vs Chris Rodesch May 13 $939 +$83 +9%
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter May 13 $2,487 −$847 -34%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $1,408 +$320 +23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $1,108 +$357 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova May 11 $303 +$149 +49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $1,273 +$68 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $144 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane SELL Terence Atmane 31¢ $2,740 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 94¢ $8,523 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $7,918 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 84¢ $6,752 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $6,993 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $1,299 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $4 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $8 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $4 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $18 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $17 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $38 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $0 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $79 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $0 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $0 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $17 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $16 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 81¢ $152 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.57 · official $322.62 (match) · 138 history records