Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb979…a2c0 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$119 (+3%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days+$5
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$131
politics 35% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.5% +20.8% 62% 62% +20.8%
≤30d 31 +30.9% +18.4% 65% 65% +15.9%
≤90d 59 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 46% -15.9%
all 61 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 46% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -6.8%
10% -23.6% 46% -15.7%
15% -30.9% 44% -23.8%
20% -37.7% 38% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$39 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage110d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +150%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$5 +117%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +133%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $4 +$4 +82%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $3 +$4 +121%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $5 +$3 +49%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 30 $6 +$3 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $3 +$2 +49%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 +$6 +300%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $5 +$3 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $6 +$2 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 24 $0 +$1 +150%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 May 23 $2 +$3 +113%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 21 $2 +$4 +158%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 +$2 +97%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 +$2 +64%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 20 $3 +$2 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +134%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 20 $6 +$2 +30%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,379 −$11 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 May 11 $3 +$1 +46%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $3 +$3 +122%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 11 $4 +$3 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 May 04 $4 +$4 +121%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5 May 04 $4 +$4 +83%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5 May 04 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Apr 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Apr 22 $5 +$5 +89%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Apr 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 22h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 47h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $1 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $3 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $0 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $0 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 7d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $0 8d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $3 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 13d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $2 14d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $0 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.22 · official $3.32 (match) · 152 history records