Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B9
0xb973…5ae1
other · 86 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage726d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Hawks 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers Lakers 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Suns Suns 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner CTBC Flying Oyster 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Porto vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? No 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Bucks Celtics 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Anyones Legend 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Over 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nets vs. Celtics Celtics 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BNK FEARX 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 19 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? May 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -30%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $2 $0 +24%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $4 $0 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $2 $0 +11%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $2 +$1 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $2 $0 +24%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 16 $10 +$6 +56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $2 −$1 -43%
Will FC Porto vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Dec 16 $1 $0 +11%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $1 $0 +27%
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5 Dec 12 $2 $0 +14%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 12 $2 $0 +24%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Dec 12 $2 +$2 +104%
Celtics vs. Bucks Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5 Dec 10 $2 +$1 +59%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $2 +$1 +30%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $1 +$1 +133%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 22 $2 $0 +10%
Wizards vs. Raptors Nov 22 $5 $0 +4%
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5 Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Celtics Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Nov 20 $2 +$2 +82%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 20 $6 +$1 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 20 $5 +$2 +47%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Nov 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Euro Finals extra time? Oct 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match be a draw? Oct 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win? Oct 19 $2 +$3 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$2
sports 29% −$13
politics 8% −$3
crypto 7% +$7
economics 3% +$7
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $3 9h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 9h
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 79d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 79d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 79d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 79¢ $2 85d
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $2 85d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 86d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 86d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 94¢ $4 86d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $2 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 90¢ $2 87d
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON 77¢ $2 87d
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 88d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 81¢ $2 88d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $2 88d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 40¢ $2 122d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals SELL Invictus Gaming 29¢ $1 122d
Will FC Porto vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 122d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals BUY Invictus Gaming 51¢ $2 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? BUY No 5¢ $1 177d
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 178d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 79¢ $1 178d
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 179d
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 179d
Lakers vs. Suns BUY Suns 63¢ $2 179d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 88¢ $2 182d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 49¢ $2 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +58.4% +43.3% 100% 100% +43.3%
≤30d 3 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.2%
≤90d 14 +8.7% -1.6% 79% 71% +4.6%
all 84 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 51% -10.6%
10% -17.7% 44% -19.1%
15% -25.6% 30% -27.0%
20% -32.9% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.06 · official $4.06 (match) · 164 history records