Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb96c…3011 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (302 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$293 (+9%) realized −$42 · open +$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day302.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (302 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -23.7%
≤30d 26 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -23.7%
≤90d 26 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -23.7%
all 26 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover302.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.8% 23% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 23% -31.0%
15% -45.9% 19% -37.7%
20% -51.2% 19% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$115 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$335
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day302.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Down 17¢ 50¢ $170 $505 +$335 (+197%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $105 +$221 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $157 +$248 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $225 +$60 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$768 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $97 +$403 +418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $71 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $326 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.96 · official $504.96 (match) · 326 history records