Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B9 0xb969…fd97 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+8%) realized +$95 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$97
14 days−$127
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$184
sports 41% +$310
other 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -96.7% -97.0% 0% 0% -97.0%
≤30d 7 +23.0% +11.3% 57% 57% +46.2%
≤90d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 50% -3.0%
all 10 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 50% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -3.0%
10% -17.1% 50% -12.3%
15% -25.1% 30% -20.8%
20% -32.5% 30% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$88 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage63d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 82¢ $145 $165 +$20 (+14%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$47 -93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $102 +$192 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $102 +$176 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $122 +$42 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 27 $78 +$46 +60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $340 −$263 -77%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $227 +$65 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $70 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $75 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $50 3d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 34¢ $102 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $102 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 74¢ $122 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 62¢ $78 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $78 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 22¢ $58 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 22¢ $40 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 28¢ $70 48d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 34¢ $50 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 99¢ $292 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 77¢ $227 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.14 · official $218.08 (match) · 24 history records