Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B9 0xb962…45fe other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$919per market

Trades / day30.3pace

Fees−$97est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	38%	19%	-13.0%
≤30d	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	38%	19%	-13.0%
≤90d	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	38%	19%	-13.0%
all	21	-17.1%	-25.0%	38%	19%	-13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.3 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.0%	19%	-13.0%
10%	-32.1%	14%	-21.3%
15% ← realistic here	-38.7%	14%	-28.9%
20%	-44.7%	10%	-35.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,003) neutral

Persistence

early -60% → late +22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$190 vs −$190 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$56

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$97

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$919

Trades / day30.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$2,016	−$766	-38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2,015	+$126	+6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$8	-16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	+$120	+233%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$8,017	+$576	+7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$5,809	+$290	+5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	+$176	+344%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	+$3	+5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	+$8	+16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$595	+$223	+38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$112	−$57	-51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$164	−$40	-24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$1,003	−$336	-34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,010	−$512	-26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$154	−$150	-97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$205	−$200	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$204	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	85¢	$498	19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	68¢	$404	24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	33¢	$342	25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	39¢	$409	27m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$202	41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	69¢	$404	48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	55¢	$424	49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	81¢	$1,006	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$43	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$171	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$8,593	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	93¢	$2,004	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$0	2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$1,717	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	93¢	$6,013	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6,099	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$301	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	95¢	$1,502	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	95¢	$4,306	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,208	3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	16h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	16h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.52 · official $143.52 (match) · 64 history records